Highlights

• • Bookmakers imply ~87% for the away player despite near-identical career data
• • At a conservative 30% win estimate for the home player, the 4.90 price yields ~47% ROI

Pros

• + Large market overreaction produces substantial margin between implied and our estimated probability
• + Research shows no injury or form edge for the away player to justify such a short price

Cons

• - Available data is limited and contains duplicated/ambiguous entries, increasing uncertainty
• - If there are unreported factors (e.g., late injury, superior recent form, home/away conditions), the market price may be justified

Details

The market prices Luisa Meyer Auf Der Heide at 1.15 (implied ~87% win probability), which is extreme given the available data. Both players show identical career records (10-21) and both have played clay and hard surfaces; there are no injury notes or clear form advantages in the research. With no clear differentiator, we assign a conservative true win probability to the home player Alexia Lavinia Puiac of 30%. At the available home moneyline of 4.90 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.30 * 4.90 - 1 = 0.47), so the home side represents value versus the current market.

Key factors

• • Both players have identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience per the research
• • No injuries, suspensions, or clear recent-form advantage reported in the available data
• • Market price (away 1.15) implies an implausibly high probability compared to the neutral evidence