Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability for Boukirat ~67.7% vs market 66.7%.
• • Small positive ROI ≈1.6% at current odds 1.50.

Pros

• + Simple, conservative model based on provided data yields a positive edge.
• + Market odds are close to our estimate, limiting downside from model assumptions.

Cons

• - No direct data on Massiva Boukirat provided; estimate is a complement and carries high uncertainty.
• - Small edge (≈1.6% ROI) is fragile and could disappear with any new information (surface, injury, H2H).

Details

We base our estimate on the only provided player data: Alexia Lavinia Puiac has a 10-21 career record across 31 matches (win rate 10/31 = 32.3%) with poor recent form (losses noted on 30-Jun-2025 and 01-Sep-2025). With no direct data for Massiva Boukirat provided, the most defensible estimate for Boukirat's win probability is the complement of Puiac's baseline win rate (≈67.74%). The market gives Boukirat decimal odds of 1.50 (implied probability 66.67%). Comparing our estimated true probability (~67.74%) to the market (66.67%) yields a small positive edge. Using odds 1.50 for the away side produces EV = 0.677419 * 1.50 - 1 ≈ 0.0161 (≈1.61% ROI). This is a marginal value opportunity given the available data, but it is tempered by high uncertainty because we lack any direct performance, surface, injury, or H2H data for Boukirat and must rely on Puiac's limited sample as the proxy.

Key factors

• • Puiac career win rate low: 10 wins in 31 matches (~32.3%).
• • Recent form for Puiac shows losses (30-Jun-2025 and 01-Sep-2025).
• • Market prices Boukirat at 1.50 (implied 66.67%); our conservative estimate is ~67.74% producing a small edge.