Highlights

• • Research shows both players with identical records and poor recent form, implying a near-even match-up
• • Current market price for Blokhina (3.24) is well above our break-even threshold (~2.083)

Pros

• + Strong upside: large gap between market-implied probability and our estimated probability
• + Conservative probability estimate still yields substantial positive EV at current odds

Cons

• - Research is limited and shows poor recent form for both players—outcomes may be volatile
• - Market may be incorporating information not present in the supplied research (injury, travel, matchup details)

Details

We find clear value on Alexis Blokhina at 3.24. The supplied profiles show both players with nearly identical career records (10-22) and similar recent form (multiple recent losses), so there is no strong informational basis in the research to justify the heavy market favoritism toward Tessah Andrianjafitrimo implied by 1.307. A neutral read of the data suggests a roughly even match-up; using a conservative estimated true probability of 48% for Blokhina (slightly below even to account for the market favorite status) produces a positive expected value versus the market price. At that probability the break-even decimal price is ~2.083, well below the current 3.24, so the current price appears to contain value.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records (10-22) and similar recent results in the provided research
• • Market strongly favors the away player (1.307) despite no clear supporting differential in the supplied data
• • Current home price (3.24) implies only ~30.9% chance, which is well below our conservative 48% estimate