Alexis Gautier vs Martin Sabas

Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Gautier (1.202) despite limited dominance in the provided records
• • At our estimated probabilities Sabas offers substantial positive EV at current prices

Pros

• + Large mismatch between market implied probability and our conservative estimate
• + Simple value arithmetic yields a strong positive EV for the away under current odds

Cons

• - Both players have limited/poor recent form and small sample sizes, increasing variance
• - Research lacks ranking, head-to-head, and detailed match-level context to reduce uncertainty

Details

We compare market-implied probabilities to our estimated true chances based solely on the provided player profiles and form. The market prices Alexis Gautier at 1.202 (implied ~83.3%) and Martin Sabas at 4.12 (implied ~24.3%). From the research, both players have losing overall records on tour (Gautier 15-20, Sabas 4-7) and recent results show losses for both; surface exposure is similar (hard courts present in both players' recent activity). Gautier has more match experience but not a dominant win rate (≈43%), so we do not believe an 83% chance is justified. Conservatively we estimate Gautier ~60% and Sabas ~40%. At that estimate Sabas at 4.12 offers clear value: EV = 0.40 * 4.12 - 1 = +0.648 (64.8% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The market markedly overprices Gautier relative to the limited performance data and small samples; the away line captures that discrepancy. We note high uncertainty due to small sample sizes and sparse form details, which increases variance in this call.

Key factors

• • Market-implied home probability (83%) is far above either player's historical win rates
• • Both players have losing records and recent losses — small-sample data increases uncertainty
• • Sabás's price (4.12) implies ~24% but we estimate ~40% given parity in form and surfaces