Alfredo Perez vs Mitchell Krueger

Highlights

• • Market implies Perez only ~30.8% chance at 3.25 while our read is ~60%
• • At 3.25 Perez yields ~0.95 EV per unit with our conservative probability

Pros

• + Perez's documented win-loss record in the research is considerably better than Krueger's
• + Both players have hard-court matches in the research, reducing surface uncertainty

Cons

• - Provided research lacks head-to-head, ranking, and full context—this increases model risk
• - Market may reflect information not present in the supplied sources (injury, fitness, recent form), so the mispricing might be justified

Details

We find value backing Alfredo Perez at the current moneyline (3.25). The market implies Perez has a ~30.8% chance (1/3.25) while his career win-rate in the provided data (48-27 across 76 matches) suggests substantially higher baseline strength on hard courts versus Mitchell Krueger (22-34 across 56 matches). Using a conservative true-win probability of 60% for Perez (reflecting his superior recorded win rate on the surfaces shown and recent hard-court activity), the fair decimal price should be ~1.667. At the market price of 3.25 the expected value is therefore positive: EV = 0.60 * 3.25 - 1 = 0.95 (95% ROI on a unit stake). Key caveats: limited head-to-head and ranking context in the provided sources and a small sample of recent match detail, so we use a conservative probability (60%) rather than the raw career rate.

Key factors

• • Perez's provided career win-rate (48-27) is materially stronger than Krueger's (22-34)
• • Both players have recent hard-court activity in the provided research, so surface advantage is neutral-to-favorable for Perez
• • Market strongly favors Krueger (implied ~75.8%) which conflicts with the win-loss data in the research and creates a pricing discrepancy