Highlights

• • Home fair odds estimated 2.50 vs market 2.93 — positive edge
• • Market implies away win probability (~73.5%) that appears overstated given the data parity

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current widely-available price for Alice
• + Decision grounded in comparative career/form parity shown in research

Cons

• - Research contains limited recent-match detail and no H2H; probability estimate has uncertainty
• - If hidden factors (injury, matchup specifics, recent form swings) exist outside provided research, edge may evaporate

Details

We find value backing Alice Rame (home) because the market prices Lilli Tagger as a heavy favourite (away 1.361 -> implied ~73.5%) despite both players having very similar career records and surface exposure in the provided profiles. The research shows near-identical career win-loss data and recent form snippets without clear injury or surface advantage to justify such a large gap. We conservatively estimate Alice's true win probability at 40.0%, which converts to fair decimal odds of 2.50. The current market price of 2.93 for Alice offers positive expected value: 0.40 * 2.93 - 1 = +0.172 (17.2% ROI). By contrast, Lilli at 1.361 would require an estimated true win probability of ~73.5% to be fair; given the data parity between players we view that as an overestimate and not value. We therefore recommend the home side at the available odds.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors away but provided profiles show near-identical career records and surface experience
• • No injury or clear form advantage reported for Lilli in the provided research
• • Current home price (2.93) exceeds our fair odds (2.50), creating positive EV