Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Alice = ~69.9% (1.43) vs our estimate ~60%
• • Current odds do not reflect clear advantages in the provided research

Pros

• + Market offers a clear favorite which is easy to evaluate quantitatively
• + Player profiles are available and show comparable experience levels

Cons

• - Provided research lacks surface-specific performance and H2H data
• - Recent form shown for both players is weak, increasing outcome uncertainty

Details

We compared the listed market prices (Alice Tubello 1.43, Caijsa Wilda Hennemann 2.65) to our assessment using only the supplied player profiles. Both player profiles show long, similar careers and recent losses with no clear surface or head-to-head advantage presented. The market implies Alice has ~69.9% chance (1/1.43) but the limited research does not justify that large a gap given near-identical records and recent form for both players. We estimate Alice's true win probability around 60%, which makes the current favorite price (1.43) negative expected value. The away price (2.65) would require a much lower true probability for Alice than the research supports to be profitable. Given the lack of differentiating data (surface edge, injury, H2H) and both players showing recent losses, there is no demonstrated value at current odds.

Key factors

• • Profiles show very similar career records and no clear superiority
• • Both players have recent losses in the cited recent matches; form advantage unclear
• • Research does not specify surface or H2H edge for this specific match
• • Market strongly favors the home player (implied ~70%) without corroborating evidence