Highlights

• • Current odds (1.775) imply 56.3% — we estimate 58.0%
• • Projected ROI is about +2.95% on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Clear experience and career-win advantage
• + Odds provide a small positive EV versus our probability estimate

Cons

• - Recent-match details are limited and both players have recent losses
• - Edge is small and subject to volatility in a single-match tennis market

Details

We estimate Alice Tubello has the edge based on a much larger career sample and higher career win rate versus Silvia Ambrosio's limited experience and sub-.350 career win percentage. Both players show recent losses, but Tubello's 559-507 career record across surfaces (including clay) suggests greater consistency and match toughness in ITF-level events. The market prices Alice at 1.775 (implied 56.3%); we assess her true win probability around 58.0%, giving a small positive edge when compared to the current odds. Key uncertainties are limited recent-form detail and no H2H data, so the value is modest but present: expected ROI = 0.58 * 1.775 - 1 = +0.0295 (≈+2.95%).

Key factors

• • Large experience and superior career win-rate for Alice (559-507 vs 10-21)
• • Both players have clay experience; Tubello's broader surface history suggests adaptability
• • Market-implied probability (56.3%) is slightly lower than our 58% estimate, creating small value
• • Silvia Ambrosio has a very small professional sample and recent form looks weak
• • No H2H available and both have recent losses — increases variance