Alice Robbe vs Ekaterina Ovcharenko

Highlights

• • Both players have identical 10-21 records and similar recent results
• • Book odds imply ~52-53% but our fair estimate is 50%, so prices are overpriced for both sides

Pros

• + Market is balanced, so no obvious trap or lopsided betting line
• + Research shows no injuries or external factors that would skew model

Cons

• - Insufficient differentiating information to justify projecting >50% for either player
• - Current prices are below the 2.00 threshold needed for a +EV bet at a 50% win probability

Details

We find no value on either side. The available research shows Alice Robbe and Ekaterina Ovcharenko have essentially identical records (10-21) and similar recent form with losses in recent events; there is no H2H or injury information to separate them. The market prices are almost even (home 1.909 -> implied 52.4%, away 1.893 -> implied 52.8%). Our best estimate given the parity in profiles and no surface or fitness edge is a ~50.0% true win probability for the listed home side (and therefore ~50.0% for the away side). At that probability the required fair decimal odds are 2.000, so the current prices (1.909/1.893) are below fair value. Using the home price 1.909 for the EV check: EV = 0.50 * 1.909 - 1 = -0.046, i.e. a negative expected return. Because neither side shows positive EV at the quoted prices, we recommend taking no bet.

Key factors

• • Players show near-identical career records and recent form (10-21) with no clear edge
• • Market prices are nearly even and imply >52% for each, while our fair estimate is ~50%
• • No H2H, injury, or surface advantage in the research to justify a deviation from a 50/50 model