Highlights

• • Home implied probability ≈70.2% vs our estimate 58%
• • EV at current home price: -0.173 (per unit staked)

Pros

• + Tubello has a long career and a positive overall record (559-507), indicating experience
• + Home is the market favorite, suggesting perceived edge not contradicted by available data

Cons

• - Available recent form data shows losses for Tubello and is incomplete
• - No information on opponent, H2H, injuries, or surface specifics — increases uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probability (Home 1.426 => ~70.2%) to our independent assessment. The available research is limited: Alice Tubello's career win rate across her long career is roughly 52.5% (559-507) and recent results shown in the file indicate losses in recent events; there is no provided information on Caijsa Hennemann, head-to-head, injuries, or clear surface advantage. Given this sparse and mixed evidence, we estimate Tubello's true win probability at ~58%, well below the market's ~70%. At the current home price of 1.426 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.58 * 1.426 - 1 = -0.173), so the favorite is over-priced relative to our model. Because we cannot justify a true win probability above the market-implied level with the data provided, we do not recommend backing either side at the current prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Tubello (≈70.2%) exceeds our estimated probability (58%) — no value
• • Research shows Tubello long career with ~52.5% overall win rate and recent losses; no corroborating advantage found
• • No available data on Hennemann, H2H, injuries, or clear surface/venue edge to justify market gap