Highlights

• • Away implied probability (1/1.036) ≈ 96.4% which exceeds our 95% estimate
• • Break-even odds for the favorite would need to be ≤1.053 for a 95% true probability

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies a dominant favorite (low variance if our estimate is correct)
• + If more information surfaces (injury, withdrawal) the price could shift and create value

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.036) offers negative expected value against our conservative estimate
• - Huge underdog line requires an upset probability we do not assign given no extra data

Details

We estimate the away pair (Bolsova Zadoinov / Semenistaja) is the clear favorite, but given the extremely short decimal (1.036) the market implies ~96.4% win probability. With no external form/injury/H2H information available and treating uncertainty conservatively, we estimate the true win probability at about 95.0% — below the market-implied probability. At that estimate the favorite is slightly over-priced by the market and offers negative expected value, so we do not recommend betting either side at the current prices. The home price (22.99) requires >4.35% true win probability to be profitable; our conservative view on upset likelihood is below that threshold, so the long shot also has no value.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for away is ~96.4% at 1.036
• • We estimate true away win probability ~95.0% given lack of additional info
• • Home would need >4.35% chance to be +EV at 22.99; our upset estimate is below that