Highlights

• • Conservative estimated true probability: 78.0%
• • Current odds (1.24) produce a negative EV (-0.0328)

Pros

• + Clear favorite status reduces variance if one were confident in information
• + Low potential payout reflects market consensus on likelihood

Cons

• - No reliable data on surface, form, injuries, or H2H to justify >78% confidence
• - Market price is slightly better than the conservative break-even threshold, so no value

Details

We assume a conservative true-win probability for the heavy favorite (Alicia Melosch) because no form, surface or injury data are available. The market prices Melosch at 1.24 (implied ~80.6%), which leaves little margin for value once we shrink our confidence to account for unknowns. Using a cautious estimated probability of 78.0% for Melosch, the expected return at the current decimal price (1.24) is negative (EV = 0.78 * 1.24 - 1 = -0.0328). To justify backing Melosch we would need odds ≥ 1.282. Given the thin margin between conservative probability and the market price and the lack of corroborating data (surface, head-to-head, recent form, injuries), we do not find positive expected value and therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Heavy market favoritism for the home player (1.24) leaves little margin for value
• • No available data on surface, recent form, injuries or H2H — we shrink probability to be conservative
• • Required break-even odds (≥1.282) are slightly above available market price