Alicia Dudeney vs Noelia Bouzo Zanotti

Highlights

• • Provided data shows near-identical profiles and recent results for both players
• • Home odds (1.066) imply an unrealistic probability relative to available information

Pros

• + If the market has information not in the research (injury/withdrawal risk), the favorite might be correctly priced
• + Short price means little volatility in the case of expected outcome

Cons

• - Current price offers no positive expected value versus our probability estimate
• - Research does not show a justifying performance edge or health advantage for the favorite

Details

We find no value on the heavy favorite at current prices. The available profiles show virtually identical records (both 10-21) and similar surface experience with poor recent form; there is no evidence in the provided research to justify the market implying ~93.7% for Alicia Dudeney (1/1.066 = 0.937). Given the lack of H2H, injury or form advantage in the sources, a fair estimated win probability is near 50%. At that probability the required decimal odds to be +EV are ~2.000, far above the listed 1.066, so wagering on either side is negative expectation.

Key factors

• • Both players have identical win-loss records (10-21) in the provided data
• • No clear surface, injury, or form advantage shown in the research
• • Market odds (1.066) imply an unsubstantiated ~93.7% probability versus our ~50% estimate