Highlights

• • Home implied probability from odds: ~60.8% (1.645)
• • Our estimated true probability for home: 55% → needs 1.818+ to be profitable

Pros

• + Market is decisive (clear favorite) which simplifies value calculation
• + Both players’ comparable records reduce risk of hidden dominance by one side

Cons

• - No supporting edge in research (surface, H2H, injuries) to justify the favorite price
• - Current favorite odds are shorter than our fair-value threshold

Details

We find no value on either side. The market price for the home favorite (1.645) implies ~60.8% chance, but the available research shows both players with nearly identical career records (10-21), similar recent results, and no clear surface or injury edge to justify a >60% true probability. Given symmetric profiles and lack of H2H or surface advantage in the provided data, we estimate Alicia Herrero Linana's true win probability around 55%. At that probability the break-even decimal price is ~1.818, so the current 1.645 is too short and offers negative expectation. To be profitable we'd need materially longer odds or additional information (injuries, H2H, form differential, or surface edge) that is not present in the research.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical records and recent results in the provided research
• • Current market price for home (1.645) implies ~60.8% which exceeds our estimated true probability
• • No clear surface, injury, or head-to-head edge is present in the supplied data to justify the favorite price