Highlights

• • Market implies 80% for Judith; we estimate ~65%
• • Required odds for value on Judith ≥ 1.538; current 1.25 offers negative EV

Pros

• + Judith’s experience and higher career win rate favor her in a mismatch
• + Both players have clay experience, reducing surface-driven uncertainty

Cons

• - Recent form for both shows losses in challenger-level events, adding noise to short-term forecasting
• - Lack of direct H2H and limited data on Reva’s recent clay-level results increase uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probability on Judith Perello Saavedra (1.25 -> 80.0%) to our estimated true probability (65%). Judith is the clear favorite based on career experience (559–507 over a long span) and surface competency on clay, while Aliesia Reva has a short professional record (10–21) and limited wins. However, the market price for Judith (implied 80%) is too short relative to our assessment of matchup likelihood (65%). Using the quoted moneyline of 1.25 for Judith, the expected return would be negative (EV = 0.65*1.25 - 1 = -0.188), so there is no positive-value bet at the current prices. We therefore recommend no bet; the price would need to be at least 1.538 (decimal) or higher for value given our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Judith Perello Saavedra has far greater career experience and a higher career win rate (559–507 vs Reva 10–21)
• • Aliesia Reva’s short sample and 10–21 record suggest limited upside against a seasoned opponent
• • Market-implied probability for Judith (80%) is materially higher than our estimated 65%, removing value