Alina Charaeva vs Carole Monnet
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Small, positive edge on Carole Monnet at 2.20; estimated win probability 47% gives ~3.4% ROI — a modest value play with medium risk.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Monnet: ~45.5%; our estimate: 47.0%
- • Positive EV at current price: +0.034 (3.4% ROI)
Pros
- + Slight pricing inefficiency in market favoring the home player
- + Both players' profiles and recent results support a close matchup, lending credibility to a small underdog edge
Cons
- - The estimated edge is small — outcome variance in tennis is high
- - Data on injuries, H2H, or clear surface advantage is limited, increasing uncertainty
Details
We estimate a modest edge on Carole Monnet versus the market. The quoted moneyline prices (Alina Charaeva 1.699 / Carole Monnet 2.20) imply the market gives Monnet ~45.5% chance. After comparing form, surface history and near-identical career records, we view the matchup as closer than the market implies and assign Monnet a 47.0% win probability. At decimal odds 2.20 this yields positive expected value: EV = 0.47 * 2.20 - 1 = +0.034 (3.4% ROI). The value is small but real given symmetric player profiles, limited surface differentiation, and the market favoring the home player slightly more than our read supports.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records and surface exposure
- • Recent form is weak for both with no clear momentum advantage
- • Market favors the home player slightly more than on-court data justifies, creating slight value on the away underdog