Highlights

• • Market price 1.60 implies 62.5%; our estimate is 66%
• • Korneeva's large experience edge and better record drive the value

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current odds
• + Clear experience and historical win-rate advantage

Cons

• - Recent form for both shows losses and limited direct matchup data
• - Edge is modest; variance and small-sample effects could erase short-term ROI

Details

We find value on the home player, Alina Korneeva. The market price of 1.60 implies a 62.5% chance of a Korneeva win (1/1.60). From the provided profiles Korneeva brings substantially more match experience (1066 matches, 559-507) versus Kaitlin Quevedo (31 matches, 10-21), and both players have experience on clay and hard courts, so surface mismatch risk is limited. Recent form notes both with losses in similar events, but Quevedo's small sample and low win rate argue Korneeva is noticeably stronger. We estimate Korneeva's true win probability at 66.0%, which is meaningfully higher than the market-implied 62.5%, giving a positive expected value (EV = 0.66*1.60 - 1 = 0.056). Given the available price and the information provided, this represents a modest value bet after accounting for uncertainty from limited head-to-head and recent form.

Key factors

• • Korneeva far greater career sample and higher win rate (559-507 vs 10-21)
• • Both players have clay and hard experience—no strong surface disadvantage
• • Market-implied probability (62.5%) is below our estimated 66% true win probability
• • Small-sample and recent-form noise for Quevedo increases uncertainty but favors Korneeva