Highlights

• • Rus shown with poor recent results in the provided profile
• • Home at 2.79 exceeds our minimum fair price of 2.632

Pros

• + Current market price on Bolsova offers positive EV by our estimate
• + Bet direction justified by documented weakness in the favorite

Cons

• - Research contains limited data on Bolsova specifically, raising uncertainty in the true-probability estimate
• - No H2H, surface, or injury details for this specific match in the provided sources

Details

We see Arantxa Rus priced at 1.446 (implied ~69.2%) despite the provided profile showing poor recent form (10-21 in the sample season and multiple recent losses). The market appears to overvalue Rus relative to the documented recent results, so we assign a materially higher chance to Aliona Bolsova Zadoinov than the market does. Using a conservative true-win probability for Bolsova of 38%, the minimum fair decimal price would be 2.632, while the available price of 2.79 gives positive expected value. This view is driven primarily by Rus's weak recent win-loss run in the research and the sizable gap between our assessed probability and the market-implied probability.

Key factors

• • Documented recent poor form for Arantxa Rus (10-21 in provided season snapshot and multiple recent losses)
• • Market-implied probability for Rus (~69%) appears high versus her recent results
• • Lack of contrary information on Bolsova in the research suggests the market premium on Rus may be overstated