Aliona Bolsova Zadoinov vs Arantxa Rus
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing Bolsova at 2.84 because the market appears to overvalue Rus given her recent 10-21 record; Bolsova shows positive expected value under our conservative probability estimate.
Highlights
- • Market implies Rus ≈69.4% but her season win rate is ≈32%
- • At our estimated 44% win chance for Bolsova, current odds 2.84 yield ~25% ROI
Pros
- + Significant edge between our estimated probability and market price
- + No reported injuries for Rus in the provided research to justify heavy favoritism
Cons
- - Limited research data on Bolsova specifically (we rely mainly on Rus's form)
- - Small-sample season data and lack of H2H/surface-specific performance for this matchup increase uncertainty
Details
We find value on Aliona Bolsova at 2.84. The market strongly favors Arantxa Rus (implied ~69.4%) despite Rus having a poor recent season-level win rate (10/31 ≈ 32%). Using Rus's documented recent form as a baseline, we believe the market overstates Rus's chance in this R16 match. Conservatively adjusting for match context (surface experience on clay/hard noted for Rus but no injury flags), we estimate Bolsova's true win probability at 44%, which implies required decimal odds of ~2.273 to break even. The current price 2.84 offers a positive expected value (EV = 0.44 * 2.84 - 1 ≈ +0.25), so a play on the home side represents profitable value under our model.
Key factors
- • Arantxa Rus season form is weak (10 wins, 21 losses in 31 matches recorded)
- • Market-implied probability (Rus ~69%) is substantially higher than her documented recent win rate
- • Current home price 2.84 exceeds our fair threshold (≈2.273), producing positive EV