Highlights

• • Current odds (1.67) imply 59.9% — our estimate is 61.0%
• • Edge is small but positive given Kalieva's recent documented losses

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price
• + Estimate supported by Kalieva's recent poor results and middling career win-rate

Cons

• - Very small margin of value — sensitive to small estimation errors
• - Research contains limited data (no detailed info on Bolsova or surface/h2h), increasing uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for the home player (Aliona Bolsova Zadoinov) to our estimated true probability. The current moneyline of 1.67 implies a 59.9% chance for the home player. The only concrete recent data in the Research is for Elvina Kalieva: a long career record of 559-507 (≈52.5% career win rate) and two recent documented losses (30 Jun 2025 and 01 Sep 2025). Kalieva's recent results suggest she is underperforming versus her career baseline, which supports a modest edge for her opponent. Given the market already favors the home player and the available data on Kalieva indicating below-par recent form, we conservatively estimate the home player's true win probability at 61.0%. At that estimate the expected value at the current decimal odds (1.67) is positive (EV ≈ 0.019 units per 1 unit staked). The edge is small and rests largely on limited data (Kalieva's recent losses and career consistency), so we recommend betting the home side only because EV>0 at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home at 1.67 equals ~59.9%
• • Kalieva's documented recent form shows two recent losses and a career win-rate of ~52.5%
• • Limited available data on Bolsova increases uncertainty; advantage inferred from Kalieva's downturn