Highlights

• • Market-implied home probability ≈ 63.3% (1/1.58)
• • Our conservative estimated home probability = 60% → requires ≥1.667 to be +EV

Pros

• + Home is the market favorite and would be value if price rises to ≥1.667
• + Opponent (Kalieva) shows recent poor form in the limited provided data

Cons

• - Insufficient research on the home player in the supplied sources to justify >63% true probability
• - Current price (1.58) yields a small negative expected value under conservative assumptions

Details

We compared the market moneyline (Home 1.58 / Away 2.32) to our estimated true chance for the favorite (home). The available research shows Elvina Kalieva has a long career but recent form appears weak with recent losses on multiple surfaces; however we have no specific, reliable data on Aliona Bolsova Zadoinov in the provided research to justify a materially higher probability than the implied market price. We conservatively estimate the home player's true win probability at 60%, which implies required fair odds of ~1.667. At the current home price of 1.58 this represents a negative expected value (EV = 0.6 * 1.58 - 1 = -0.052), so there is no profitable value to back the favorite at publicly available prices. If better prices (>= 1.667) become available, the home side would become marginal value.

Key factors

• • Available research shows Elvina Kalieva has recent poor results and mixed recent form
• • No provided research on Aliona Bolsova Zadoinov to justify a higher confidence than market implies
• • Current home odds (1.58) imply ~63% market probability; our conservative true estimate (60%) is lower than the market-implied value