Highlights

• • Our estimated probability for Danilova: 53%; required fair odds > 1.887
• • Current home price 1.66 produces a negative EV of about -0.12 per unit

Pros

• + Player profiles and surfaces are similar, reducing model uncertainty
• + No injury information suggests both should be at baseline level

Cons

• - Both players show poor recent form (multiple recent losses), increasing variance
• - Market favours the home player more than our estimated edge, removing value

Details

We find no value at the posted prices. Both players present nearly identical profiles (10-22 career records, similar recent losses, same surfaces), with no injury or form edge in the research. We assign a slight home-edge to Alisa Danilova given home status and no other distinguishing factors and estimate her true win probability at 53% (0.53). At the current home moneyline 1.66 (implied 60.2%), EV = 0.53 * 1.66 - 1 = -0.1202 (negative). The away line 2.10 implies 47.6%; our estimated away probability (~0.47) gives EV ≈ -0.013, also negative. Both sides are overlaid by the market, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical recent records and form for both players (10-22)
• • No reported injuries or clear surface advantage in the provided research
• • Market prices (1.66/2.10) imply probabilities that exceed our estimated true chances