Highlights

• • Market-implied probability: 84.0% vs our estimate 78% (market overprices Lim)
• • Fair decimal price per our model ~1.282; available price 1.19 produces negative EV

Pros

• + Alize Lim is a seasoned professional with extensive match experience
• + Market clearly favors Lim, indicating perceived class edge

Cons

• - Recent results in the supplied research show losses, reducing confidence in a very short price
• - No data supplied on the opponent (Liv Boulard) makes the market move harder to justify
• - Available price (1.19) is too short to offer positive expected value at our probability estimate

Details

We compare the market price (Alize Lim 1.19 => implied 84.0% win chance) to our estimated true win probability of 78%. Although Lim is the clear favorite on paper given career experience, her recent mini-form shows losses and there is no data on Liv Boulard in the provided research to justify the market's very short price. At our 78% estimate the fair decimal price is ~1.282, which is longer than the available 1.19, so the market price offers negative expected value. Therefore we do not recommend taking the 1.19 moneyline.

Key factors

• • Market implies 84.0% chance for Lim (1/1.19) which is higher than our assessment
• • Alize Lim has long career experience but recent results in the supplied log show recent losses and limited form edge
• • No information provided on Liv Boulard (opponent unknown), increasing uncertainty and reducing confidence in such a short market price