Highlights

• • Market implies only ~30.8% for the away at 3.25; we estimate ~35%
• • Positive EV of ~0.138 (13.8% ROI) at the current away price

Pros

• + Away price (3.25) exceeds our minimum fair odds (2.857) for a 35% win chance
• + Home player shows weak form and limited positive indicators in the provided profile

Cons

• - Research lacks direct information on Nina Zabrdac, increasing uncertainty in our probability estimate
• - Short career sample and sparse data can produce higher variance and model risk

Details

We compare market-implied probabilities to our assessment. The market prices Almudena Sanz-Llaneza Fernandez as a strong favorite at 1.30 (implied ~76.9%), but the available profile shows a short career (2024-09 to 2025-09), a losing overall record (10-21) and a run of recent defeats, suggesting form and experience concerns. There is no opponent data in the research to prove a dominant mismatch in favor of the home player, so we assign a materially lower true probability to the home player and a higher probability to the away player than the market implies. We estimate Nina Zabrdac's win probability at 35%, which is higher than the market-implied 30.8% (3.25 decimal), producing positive expected value on the away price. At 3.25 decimal the EV = 0.35*3.25 - 1 = 0.138 (≈13.8% ROI). We therefore recommend backing the away player only because the quoted 3.25 offers value versus our estimated true probability.

Key factors

• • Almudena has a short career sample and a poor recent record (10-21) with multiple recent losses
• • Market heavily favors home at 1.30 (implied ~76.9%), which appears overstated given form data
• • Absence of opponent data in research suggests the market may be overpricing the favorite; the away price 3.25 offers value if true chance ≥35%