Alvaro Peiro Serrano vs Nicolas Rafael Goldberg Alviani
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive edge on the away player at 1.18 based on an estimated true win probability of 86.0%, yielding an EV of ~1.48% per unit staked. The opportunity is low-margin and should be treated as a cautious value bet.
Highlights
- • Market price (1.18) implies ~84.7% chance; our estimate is 86.0%.
- • EV is small but positive: ~0.0148 (1.48% ROI) at current odds.
Pros
- + Positive expected value at available odds.
- + No contradicting injury or condition data in the research.
Cons
- - Edge is small and sensitive to estimation error.
- - Limited match-specific info (form, H2H, ranking details) increases uncertainty.
Details
Market prices put the away player at 1.18 (implied win probability ~84.7%). After accounting for the clear market confidence, the clay surface (neutral to slightly favorable for experienced baseliners) and the lack of any reported injuries or limiting conditions in the research, we estimate the away player’s true win probability at 86.0%. That is slightly higher than the market-implied 84.7%, producing a small positive edge. At decimal odds 1.18 the expected value is positive (EV = 0.86 * 1.18 - 1 ≈ 0.0148), so a back of the away side represents a small-value, low-margin opportunity. The margin is modest and relies on limited publicly available info, so the recommendation is cautious.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (1.18 → ~84.7%) versus our 86.0% estimate
- • Surface: clay (outdoor) — no contradicting surface information found
- • No reported injuries or disruptions in provided research; limited data increases uncertainty