Aman Sharma vs Maximilian Borisov
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Insufficient information to justify value on either side; the underdog price (2.35) requires a >42.6% win chance to be profitable and our conservative estimate (~40%) does not clear that bar — recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Current away price 2.35 requires >42.55% to be +EV; we estimate 40.0%
- • Market skewed toward home favorite (1.54) and we lack independent data to overturn that view
Pros
- + Market prices appear efficient in absence of information
- + Conservative approach minimizes risk of chasing false value
Cons
- - If unseen information (injury/form/surface advantage) exists, our conservative estimate could understate value
- - Small negative EV implies a close call; better data could flip decision
Details
We have no external match data (surface, recent form, injuries, or H2H) and must be conservative. The market price shows Aman Sharma as the favorite at 1.54 (raw implied 64.9%) and Maximilian Borisov at 2.35 (raw implied 42.6%); normalized for bookmaker margin the market implies roughly 60.4% for Aman and 39.6% for Maximilian. Given the lack of information, we adopt a cautious estimated true probability for the underdog (Maximilian) of 40.0%. At the current away price of 2.35 a fair-value threshold to be profitable would require a win probability > 1/2.35 = 42.55%. Our conservative 40.0% estimate falls short, producing a small negative expected value (EV = 0.40 * 2.35 - 1 = -0.06). Because we cannot justify a positive EV at available prices and lack corroborating data, we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • No research data available on surface, form, or injuries
- • Market prices imply Aman as a clear favorite (1.54); normalized market win for Maximilian ~39.6%
- • Our conservative estimated true probability for the underdog (40.0%) is below the break-even threshold for the quoted away price