Aman Sharma vs James Lorenzetti

Highlights

• • Conservative true win probability for Aman Sharma: 56.0%
• • Required fair odds to be +EV: >= 1.786; offered 1.75 is short

Pros

• + Slight home-edge assumed in absence of other information
• + Market shows a clear favourite so small mispricings would be exploitable if higher prices appear

Cons

• - Current offered price for the favoured side is slightly worse than our fair estimate, producing negative EV
• - Lack of data increases uncertainty; model is conservative and may miss situational edges

Details

We have no external form, surface, injury, or head-to-head information and must rely on the quoted moneyline. The market prices Aman Sharma at 1.75 (implied ~57.1%) and James Lorenzetti at 1.98 (implied ~50.5%), with an overround of ~7.6%. Conservatively we assign a slight true edge to the home player (Aman Sharma) at 56.0% given home advantage and lack of contradictory information. At that true probability the fair decimal price is ~1.786, which is slightly larger than the offered 1.75, producing a small negative expected value. Because expected_value <= 0 at current widely-available prices, we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • No external data on form, surface preference, injuries, or H2H – must be conservative
• • Market implies a stronger favourite (Aman) but our conservative true probability (0.56) does not justify the offered 1.75
• • Market overround (~7.6%) reduces value; the offered price sits below our fair price (1.786)