Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Losciale (1.311) despite a 10-21 career record
• • At our 40% estimate Amanda's fair odds are 2.50 — current 3.12 is value

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current widely-available price
• + Market likely overreacting to factors not supported by Losciale's limited win record

Cons

• - Very limited publicly-available data on Amanda increases uncertainty
• - Bookmakers may have additional information (fitness, matchup, ranking) not in our dataset

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to our assessment. The book prices Valentina Losciale at 1.311 (implied ~76.3%) and Amanda Montes Khaghani at 3.12 (implied ~32.1%). However, Losciale's career-level record (10-21) and recent losing results suggest her true win probability is materially lower than the market implies. With very limited head-to-head and public data on Amanda but observing the market overrating Losciale, we estimate Amanda's true win probability at 40%. At that probability the fair price for Amanda is 2.50; the available price of 3.12 therefore represents value. EV for a 1-unit stake on Amanda at 3.12 is 0.40 * 3.12 - 1 = +0.248 (24.8%). We prefer the home underdog because it offers positive expected value while backing the short-priced favorite does not.

Key factors

• • Bookmarket implies 76% for Losciale, which appears stretched given her 10-21 career record
• • Losciale's recent results include multiple losses, reducing confidence in favorite pricing
• • Home underdog price (3.12) offers value relative to our estimated 40% true win probability