Highlights

• • Market implied: 79.7% vs our estimate: 86%
• • Minimum fair odds given our model: 1.163; current 1.254 > required

Pros

• + Clear positive expected value at the quoted price
• + Play on the market favorite reduces variance relative to longshots

Cons

• - Tennis upsets happen; one bad match from the favorite erases expected edge
• - We have limited match-specific data beyond surface and odds in the provided research

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Iga Swiatek (1/1.254 = 79.7%) to our estimated true win probability of 86%. On outdoor hard courts at a major, Swiatek is the clear favorite and the current price (1.254) understates her chance moderately versus our view. Using our estimate, expected value = 0.86 * 1.254 - 1 = +0.078 (7.8% ROI per unit). The minimum fair decimal odds given our probability is 1.163; the market quote of 1.254 is therefore offering positive value. We note standard match variance and upset risk but conclude the favorite is priced slightly attractively.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (79.7%) is below our estimated probability (86%)
• • Surface: outdoor hard favors consistent baseline power and consistency
• • Anisimova is capable of upsets but is less consistent at majors compared with a top favorite