Highlights

• • Market implies ~70% for away, but research shows no decisive advantage
• • Home at 2.79 converts to +25.6% EV under our conservative 45% true probability

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at quoted home price (2.79) under our probability model
• + No injury or surface disadvantage identified in the provided research

Cons

• - Research provides limited detail on pairing chemistry, H2H or recent doubles-specific results
• - Estimate relies on symmetry reasoning; unexpected factors (lineup/chemistry) could overturn value

Details

We see the market pricing the away team at 1.422 (implied ~70.3%) and the home team at 2.79 (implied ~35.8%). The supplied profiles show all four players with very similar recent records and surface experience (hard and clay) and no clear injury or form separation in the research. Given the symmetry in the datasets provided, the market’s heavy favoritism toward the away side appears overstated. We conservatively estimate the true win probability for Hesse/Maria at 45%. At the current home decimal price of 2.79 this yields EV = 0.45 * 2.79 - 1 = +0.256 (25.6% ROI on a 1-unit stake), which represents positive value versus the market-implied probability. We therefore recommend backing the home team at available prices because the market overprices the away team relative to the balanced evidence in the player profiles.

Key factors

• • All four players show nearly identical recent win-loss records in the provided profiles
• • All players have experience on hard courts — no clear surface advantage in research
• • Market-implied probability for the away side (≈70%) appears excessive given symmetrical data