Highlights

• • Home implied probability: ~55.96% (1.787); our estimate: 54.0%
• • Required fair odds for value on home are ~1.852; current price is lower

Pros

• + Market is tight around two similarly profiled players, so outcomes are close and predictable margin is small
• + If future information (injury, surface advantage) appears improving our estimate, a value opportunity could emerge

Cons

• - Current market prices do not offer positive EV on either side based on the provided data
• - Research lacks distinguishing form, surface, or H2H details, increasing uncertainty

Details

We find no value at the current prices. The market prices Amandine Monnot as a slight favorite (decimal 1.787, implied ~55.96%), but the available dossiers show nearly identical career records and no clear form advantage for either player. Given the symmetrical profiles and muted recent results, we estimate Monnot's true win probability slightly below the market-implied number (we use 54.0%). At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.852, which is higher than the available 1.787, producing a negative expected value. The away line (1.952) is also priced close to parity versus the limited data and does not present positive EV by our assessment.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and match histories in the provided research
• • Market-implied probability for the home player (55.96%) is slightly higher than our estimate (54.0%)
• • No clear recent-form edge or injury information to justify diverging from market