Amandine Hesse vs Kaitlin Quevedo
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Amandine Hesse at 3.22 because the market overprices Kaitlin Quevedo relative to the supplied, nearly identical player profiles; we estimate Hesse's win chance at ~48%, yielding positive EV.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~74% for Quevedo, which conflicts with identical records provided
- • Hesse needs only ~31.1% to break even at 3.22; our conservative estimate is 48%
Pros
- + Large pricing disparity relative to supplied player data
- + Conservative probability estimate still yields strong positive EV
Cons
- - Research contains limited detail (no H2H, ranking or injury info) increasing uncertainty
- - If the market reflects information not in the provided sources, our model could be incorrect
Details
We see both players with virtually identical career records and recent form in the supplied data (both 10-21, similar surfaces played), yet the market prices Kaitlin Quevedo as a heavy favorite (implied ~74% at 1.352). With no injury or H2H information to justify such a large gap, we judge the book to be overstating Quevedo's chance. We estimate Amandine Hesse's true win probability materially above the breakeven threshold for the offered 3.22 price. Using a conservative fair probability for Hesse of 48%, the 3.22 quote produces positive expected value (EV = 0.48 * 3.22 - 1). We therefore recommend backing the home under the current market price.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical records and recent form in the supplied data (10-21)
- • Market strongly favors Quevedo (1.352) despite no clear advantage in the provided research
- • No injury, surface, or H2H evidence in the research that justifies the market skew