Highlights

• • Home implied probability 62.5% vs our estimate 52%
• • Negative EV at current price: -0.168 per unit staked

Pros

• + Both players' records are similar so extreme market bias is unlikely
• + Clear recommendation to avoid value-sucking price — protects bankroll from unfavorable edge

Cons

• - Limited data prevents finding small edges; if additional info (injury/H2H/surface) exists it could change the view
• - If market price moves to >1.923 (decimal) this analysis would change

Details

We compared the market decimal price for Amarissa Kiara Toth (1.60, implied win probability 62.5%) to our assessment based on the available profiles. Both players have nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided data (10-21 overall, similar recent results and surfaces), and there is no H2H, injury, or clear surface edge in the research to justify a large gap from 50/50. We estimate a modest home edge (likely due to nominal home listing) but nothing close to the market-implied 62.5%. Using our estimated true win probability of 52%, the bet at 1.60 yields negative expected value (EV = 0.52*1.60 - 1 = -0.168). Because the market price requires a higher true probability (~62.5%) to be profitable and we see no evidence supporting that level, we recommend taking no side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical records and near-identical recent match entries in the provided data
• • No clear surface, injury, or H2H advantage present in the research to justify market pricing
• • Market-implied probability (home 62.5%) materially exceeds our estimated true probability (52%)