Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Sinja Kraus

Highlights

• • Kraus has dominant experience advantage (1000+ matches) versus Toth's 31 matches
• • Current odds (1.375) are longer than our fair-price estimate (~1.282), creating value

Pros

• + Clear experience and consistency gap favoring Kraus
• + Market odds provide a measurable positive edge per our probability estimate

Cons

• - Research shows recent losses for both players, introducing short-term form noise
• - Surface and matchup-specific details are limited in the provided data, increasing uncertainty

Details

We view value on Sinja Kraus at 1.375. The market-implied win probability for Kraus is ~72.7% (1/1.375) but, based on the research, her large career sample (559 wins, 1066 matches) and experience advantage over Amarissa Kiara Toth (10-21 career) materially raise her likelihood of winning. Toth's limited win record and recent string of losses suggest a clear mismatch in consistency and match experience. We estimate Kraus's true win probability at 78.0%, which implies fair odds of ~1.282; the offered 1.375 therefore contains positive expected value after accounting for the bookmakers' overround (~4.9%). There are some uncertainties (surface and recent form blips for both players), so the edge is a moderate one rather than overwhelming.

Key factors

• • Large experience/win-count advantage for Kraus (559 career wins vs Toth's 10)
• • Toth's limited professional record and recent losses indicate lower baseline reliability
• • Book price for Kraus (1.375) implies ~72.7% but our model estimates ~78% true probability