Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Sinja Kraus

Highlights

• • Market implies Kraus ~72.9% but research shows near-equal records and form
• • Current home odds (3.15) exceed our break-even (2.632) for our estimated probability

Pros

• + Significant margin between market odds and our required break-even odds
• + Both players' recent stats and records do not justify heavy market favoritism

Cons

• - Limited and noisy data: both players have poor recent form and small sample sizes
• - No H2H or venue/surface edge in the provided research, increasing outcome variance

Details

We see a large market favorite in Sinja Kraus (1.373 decimal, implied ~72.9%) despite the research showing both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form with multiple recent losses. Surface history lists both playing clay and hard with no clear edge; recent match-level serve stats cited are comparable. Given this parity, the market's implied probability for Kraus appears overstated. We conservatively estimate Amarissa Kiara Toth's true chance at 38% (0.38). At the offered 3.15 decimal for Toth this implies positive expected value: EV = 0.38 * 3.15 - 1 = 0.197 (≈19.7% ROI). The min required decimal odds to justify our 38% estimate is 1 / 0.38 = 2.632; the current 3.15 exceeds that threshold, providing clear value per our model. Key uncertainties (small sample sizes, lack of H2H, and both players' recent poor results) raise variance, so while value exists versus the quoted price, the pick carries meaningful risk.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical 10-21 records and similar surface exposure (clay, hard)
• • Market implies Kraus ~72.9% win probability which conflicts with parity in the provided data
• • Recent serve and match stats provided are comparable, offering no clear advantage to Kraus