Highlights

• • Implied probability for Raynel is 42.4% vs our 48% estimate
• • Required fair odds for value are ≤ 2.083; current price 2.36 offers value

Pros

• + Higher estimated true win probability than the market implies
• + Broader surface experience and slightly stronger recent outcomes in the provided data

Cons

• - Both players have modest overall records — outcomes can be volatile at ITF level
• - Research sample is limited and recent match details are somewhat inconsistent, raising uncertainty

Details

We find value on Amaury Raynel at 2.36. The market implies Raynel's win probability at ~42.4% (1/2.36) while Alexis Gautier is priced as a clear favorite (implied ~66.0%). From the provided profiles Raynel has a superior overall win-rate (23-23 vs 15-20) and experience on both clay and hard, whereas Gautier's profile lists only hard and shows recent losses at M25 level. Gautier's short-term form data in the research indicates multiple recent defeats, which weakens the heavy favorite price. We estimate Raynel's true win probability at 48% based on relative records, surface coverage, and recent results, which prices his fair decimal odds at ~2.083. At the listed 2.36 this produces positive edge: EV = 0.48 * 2.36 - 1 = +0.133 (13.3% ROI). The market appears to overvalue Gautier relative to the on-paper match-up and recent form, creating value on Raynel.

Key factors

• • Raynel has a better overall recent win-loss profile and plays on both clay and hard
• • Gautier's recent match list shows multiple losses at M25 level on hard, indicating weakened short-term form
• • Current market price (2.36) implies less chance than our estimated probability, creating positive edge