Highlights

• • Mazzoni's career and recent form suggest true win probability far below market-implied 58.8%
• • Home at 2.05 yields an estimated EV of +0.435 (43.5% ROI) under our probability model

Pros

• + Clear discrepancy between Mazzoni's documented form and market-implied probability
• + Current home price (2.05) is well above the break-even threshold (1.429) for our estimate

Cons

• - We lack any direct data on Amelia Fortescue (surface preference, form, injuries)
• - Market may be reflecting unseen factors (late injury, withdrawals, or insider info) not present in the provided research

Details

We find value on the home player (Amelia Fortescue) because the market currently prices the away player (Emma Mazzoni) as the favorite at 1.70 (implied 58.8%). The only available player data shows Mazzoni with a 10-21 career record (31 matches, ~32% career win rate) and a poor recent run, which strongly suggests her true win probability is far lower than the 58.8% implied by the 1.70 price. With no injury flags and no H2H or surface advantage reported, the reasonable inference is that bookmakers have overrated Mazzoni for this match or there is limited market liquidity. Conservatively estimating Mazzoni’s true win probability at 30% (career and recent form anchored) implies Amelia’s true win probability of ~70%. At the current home price of 2.05 that produces positive expected value (EV = 0.70*2.05 - 1 = 0.435). We use the current widely-available moneyline for the EV calculation (home 2.05). Given the limited dataset (only Mazzoni profile) and unknowns about Amelia and surface, we keep a measured confidence but conclude the 2.05 price offers clear value versus our estimated probabilities.

Key factors

• • Emma Mazzoni's career record 10-21 (~32% win rate) and poor recent form
• • Bookmakers currently favor Mazzoni (1.70) despite weak results — potential market mispricing
• • No injury reports or H2H/surface data available, increasing uncertainty and requiring conservative probability estimates