Highlights

• • Market-implied probability 87.6% vs our estimated 40%
• • Fair decimal odds required for value ~2.50 (market is 1.142)

Pros

• + Rajecki is listed as the favorite, meaning short market lines for quick resolution
• + Home designation may imply slight non-competitive edge in some contexts

Cons

• - Provided form and career record point to a sub-50% player in recent period
• - Quoted price offers a large negative expected value at our probability estimate

Details

The market price for Amelia Rajecki (1.142) implies a win probability of ~87.6% (1/1.142). Our assessment, based only on the provided research, assigns Rajecki a substantially lower true win probability (~40%) given a 10-21 career record and recent string of losses in the referenced matches. With no information provided on Astrid Olsen or mitigating factors (injuries, withdrawals, clear surface advantage), we cannot justify the market's heavy favoritism. At our estimated probability the required fair decimal price would be ~2.50, far above the quoted 1.142, producing a large negative expected value if backing Rajecki. Therefore we recommend no bet because no value exists at current prices.

Key factors

• • Amelia Rajecki's overall record 10-21 and recent losing form in the provided match list
• • Current market implies ~87.6% probability vs our estimated ~40%
• • No information provided on Astrid Olsen or other context to justify the heavy market favoritism