Highlights

• • Astrid's long career and higher win-rate argue she should be favored
• • Current away odds (4.8) imply only ~20.8% chance, which appears too low

Pros

• + Large value gap between implied market probability and our estimate
• + Experience and broader match history favor Astrid

Cons

• - Limited recent-match detail and no explicit injury reports increase uncertainty
• - Tournament/venue surface specifics are not provided in the research, adding variance

Details

The market strongly favors the home player Amelia Rajecki at 1.15 despite her limited record (10-21) and recent losses on hard courts. Astrid Wanja Brune Olsen has a much larger sample and a superior career win-rate (559-507) and experience advantage, and both players have recent results showing losses but no clear injury flags. The current away price of 4.8 implies a win probability of ~20.8%; based on career win-rate disparity, experience, and relative recent form we estimate Astrid's true win probability at 40%, which yields a positive expected value. Using EV = p * odds - 1 with p=0.40 and odds=4.8 gives EV = 0.92 (92% ROI). The market appears mispriced in favor of the home player, providing clear value on Astrid at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Career win-rate and experience advantage for Astrid (559-507 vs 10-21)
• • Recent form: both players showing losses, but Amelia's sample is poorer
• • Market mispricing: heavy favorite listed as home despite weaker record