Amelia Rajecki vs Katherine Sebov

Highlights

• • Market implies Sebov wins ~77.7%; we estimate ~70%
• • Negative expected value at current price (≈ -0.099 per unit)

Pros

• + Sebov's long track record and higher career win total suggest a real advantage
• + Both players' recent results indicate vulnerability, limiting upside for Rajecki

Cons

• - Market has already priced Sebov as a heavy favorite, leaving little or no value
• - Limited specific surface or injury information in the research reduces confidence in a much higher true probability than 70%

Details

We compared the market moneyline (Sebov 1.287 -> implied win probability ~77.7%) to our assessment based on the provided player profiles. Katherine Sebov is the clear favorite: extensive match experience (559-507 career) and likely higher baseline quality than Amelia Rajecki (10-21 in a much shorter pro span). Both players show recent losses at Challenger events, suggesting neither is in dominant form right now, but Sebov's depth and experience make her the more probable winner. Given the market price implies Sebov wins ~77.7% of the time, we estimate her true win probability closer to 70% based on career win rates, surface exposure (both have clay/hard experience), and recent inconsistent results. At that 70% estimate, the expected value at the current decimal price (1.287) is negative (EV ≈ -0.099 per 1 unit stake), so there is no positive-value bet on either side at the quoted prices. We therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Sebov's substantial career experience and higher overall win rate versus Rajecki's short, losing record
• • Both players recorded recent losses at Challenger events—form is mixed rather than clearly one-sided
• • Market-priced favorite (Sebov at 1.287) implies a win probability (~77.7%) higher than our estimated true probability (~70%)