Amina Anshba vs Cristina Diaz Adrover
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given near-identical profiles and no clear advantage for the favorite, the home price 2.75 looks mispriced; we estimate Amina Anshba has ~48% win probability, making the home side +EV.
Highlights
- • Implied market probability for home (2.75) = 36.36% vs our estimate 48%
- • Positive EV of +0.32 units per 1 unit staked at current home price
Pros
- + Clear numerical value between market-implied and our estimated true probability
- + No reported injury or surface disadvantage to justify the heavy market lean
Cons
- - Small-sample records and noisy qualifier data increase variance and uncertainty
- - Lack of head-to-head, surface-specific, or in-tournament form detail increases risk of model error
Details
We see a clear disparity between the market and the on-paper profiles: the book markets give Cristina Diaz Adrover a ~68.5% implied chance (1.459) while Amina Anshba is priced at 2.75 (36.36% implied). The available research shows both players have nearly identical recent records (around 10-22 / 10-21) and similar surface experience with no explicit injury or head-to-head advantage reported. With no evident performance differentiator and a small-sample, noisy data set at qualifier level, we view the matchup closer to even than the market implies. Conservatively estimating Amina's true win probability at 48% produces positive expected value at the current home price of 2.75, so we recommend backing the home player as a value play.
Key factors
- • Both players have nearly identical season records and recent form, offering no clear edge
- • Market heavily favors the away player (1.459) despite no measurable advantage in the available data
- • Qualifier-level matches and small sample sizes increase variance but also create pricing inefficiencies