Highlights

• • Home price 1.769 > required 1.709 at our estimate, creating value
• • Edge is small and based on conservative assumptions due to missing data

Pros

• + Current market price offers a measurable positive expected value vs our probability
• + Recommendation is conservative rather than aggressive given information scarcity

Cons

• - Estimate is assumption-driven with no supporting data (form, surface, injuries, H2H)
• - Small EV means variance can easily eliminate the edge in the short term

Details

We have no external research, so we apply conservative assumptions. The market prices show the home moneyline at 1.769 (implied ~56.6%). We estimate Amr Elsayed's true win probability at 58.5% (0.585) due to a modest assumed home/venue edge and because the market only slightly favours him. At our estimated probability the minimum fair decimal price is ~1.709; the available price 1.769 offers positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.585 * 1.769 - 1 = 0.034865 (≈3.49% ROI). Given the limited information, the edge is small and uncertainty is high, but the current home price represents value versus our conservative probability.

Key factors

• • No external match data available — conservative, assumption-driven estimate
• • Bookmaker market favours home at 1.769 (implied ~56.6%), below our 58.5% estimate
• • Small edge after accounting for bookmaker margin, but high uncertainty due to lack of info