Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies Kaat only a 12.5% chance while our read is ~25%
• • At 8.0 the away line yields a high positive EV (100% ROI under our estimate)

Pros

• + Large edge between our probability estimate and market-implied probability
• + No research-based justification for an overwhelming favorite

Cons

• - Research is limited and similar for both players; there is uncertainty in our probability estimate
• - Such extreme market prices can indicate data-entry errors or late information not present in the research

Details

We find a clear pricing discrepancy: the market prices Amy Sucha at 1.07 (implied ~93.5% win chance) and Kaat Coppez at 8.0 (implied ~12.5%). The available research shows virtually identical career spans, win-loss profiles and recent form for both players with no injury or surface advantage indicated, so we do not accept a 93% probability for the home player. Conservatively estimating Kaat Coppez's true win probability at 25% (0.25) versus the market's 12.5% implies substantial value on the away moneyline. Using the quoted away odds (8.0), EV = 0.25 * 8.0 - 1 = 1.0 (100% ROI on a 1-unit stake). Because this market price looks like an outlier given the parity in the research, we recommend backing the away player only if those odds are genuinely available.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities are extremely skewed (home ~93.5%, away ~12.5%)
• • Research shows nearly identical career records and recent form for both players
• • No injury, surface or H2H information supporting such a heavy favorite