Amy Zhu vs Ya-Hsuan Lee

Highlights

• • Both players show 10-21 records and recent losses on hard courts in the provided data
• • Home price 2.9 > fair price 2.381 based on our estimated 42% win probability

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current home odds (0.218)
• + Research indicates parity between players, supporting a larger true probability for the underdog than the market implies

Cons

• - Player data set is limited and both have recent poor form, increasing outcome variance
• - No H2H, ranking, or injury detail in the research — uncertainty remains

Details

We see a large market skew toward Ya-Hsuan Lee (1.37 decimal, ~73% implied) despite the provided player profiles showing nearly identical career spans, surfaces played, and overall records (both 10-21). Recent form data in the research shows both players with losses in recent hard-court challengers and no explicit injury or disqualifying information. Given the parity in the available data, the market's heavy favorite price looks overstated. We conservatively estimate Amy Zhu's true win probability at 42% (slightly below even due to small sample and recent losses for both), which implies a fair decimal price of 2.381. At the current home price of 2.9, the bet yields positive expected value (EV = 0.42 * 2.9 - 1 = +0.218), so the home moneyline represents value versus the market favorite price of 1.37. We use the provided market odds (home 2.9) for the EV calculation and refrain from assuming any external ranking or injury information not present in the research.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors away (1.37) despite research showing near-identical records and surface experience
• • Both players show similar recent form on hard courts with recent losses; no injury information provided
• • Current home price 2.9 exceeds our fair odds threshold (2.381), producing positive EV