Amy Zhu vs Ji Min Park
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market gives Amy Zhu an implausibly high probability (≈97%); based on her 10-21 season record and poor recent form we estimate ~80% — no value at 1.03, so no bet.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability far exceeds our modelled probability
- • Negative EV at current favorite price (≈ -0.176)
Pros
- + Amy Zhu is the market favorite and likely the stronger name on paper
- + If opponent is unknown or inexperienced, market may be reflecting that
Cons
- - Season record and recent match form do not justify a ~97% market probability
- - Extremely short price leaves no room for value; large potential for an upset given current form
Details
We compared the market price (Amy Zhu 1.03 implied ~97.1%) to a realistic assessment based on available player data. Amy Zhu's season-level numbers show a 10-21 record and very poor recent form (only 1 win in the last 10 matches supplied), which reduces confidence that she is a 97% probability winner here. With no information on Ji Min Park to suggest a major mismatch in Zhu's favor and no injury/conditions data supporting such an extreme market price, we estimate a true win probability for Amy Zhu around 80%. Using that probability the expected return at the quoted 1.03 price is negative (EV = 0.80 * 1.03 - 1 = -0.176), so there is no value on the heavy favorite and we recommend no bet at current prices.
Key factors
- • Amy Zhu's overall record this season is weak (10-21), indicating vulnerability despite favorite pricing
- • Recent form is poor (only 1 win in the last 10 matches provided), which lowers her true win probability
- • Market price (1.03) implies an extreme probability (~97%) that is not supported by the performance data; no opponent data provided to justify the gap