Amy Zhu vs Miyu Nakashima

Highlights

• • Market implies 38.5% for away but our model estimates 48%
• • Required odds to break even on our estimate: 2.083; current 2.60 offers significant margin

Pros

• + Clear pricing gap between market and our probability estimate
• + Both players' profiles are similar, reducing model uncertainty from form differentials

Cons

• - Overall low-quality form from both players increases outcome variance
• - Limited data differentiation means edge is primarily a market-mispricing play, not a strong performance advantage

Details

We find value on Miyu Nakashima (away). The market implies Amy Zhu 69.0% (1.45) vs Nakashima 38.5% (2.60). The public pricing looks skewed toward the home player despite both players showing virtually identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form on the same surfaces. There are no injury or surface advantages evident in the research that justify a ~30 point gap in implied probability. We therefore estimate Nakashima's true win probability at 48% (0.48). At current away odds 2.60 this produces positive expectation: EV = 0.48 * 2.60 - 1 = 0.248 (24.8% ROI). The minimum fair decimal odds given our probability is 2.083; the market price 2.60 is well above that, creating clear value. We remain cautious because both players have poor recent records and limited differentiation, so our edge is driven mainly by market mispricing rather than a large performance gap.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical win-loss records and similar recent form on hard/clay
• • Market-implied probabilities are heavily favoring the home player without supporting performance differences
• • No injury or surface edge evident in available research to justify the market gap