Highlights

• • Book price 1.943 implies 51.4% — we estimate ~53% true chance
• • Resulting EV ≈ +0.03 per unit staked (small but positive)

Pros

• + Away pair benefits from Pigossi's extensive match experience
• + Current market margin leaves a small exploitable edge if our probability is accurate

Cons

• - Edge is small and sensitive to minor changes in probability
• - Research shows mixed recent results for all players; data is limited and noisy

Details

We estimate Ingrid Gamarra Martins / Laura Pigossi are slightly undervalued by the market. The bookmaker-implied probability for the away side at 1.943 is 0.514, while we assess their true chance at about 0.53. Our view is driven by Pigossi's extensive match experience and proven surface versatility, combined with the inconsistent recent form shown in the provided profiles for Ana Candiotto and Beatriz Haddad Maia. The market price implies a small margin and appears to understate the value of an experienced pairing vs. a less-established duo; using 0.53 as our probability produces a positive expected value at the current decimal price.

Key factors

• • Laura Pigossi's long career and greater match experience across surfaces
• • Recent form entries show losses for Candiotto and Haddad Maia suggesting inconsistent play
• • Market's implied probability (1.943 -> 51.4%) is slightly below our assessed true win chance (53%)