Highlights

• • Market implies 9.09% for away; we estimate ~65% — large discrepancy
• • Ana's 10-21 career mark and recent losses argue against a 1.01 true price

Pros

• + Very large edge between market implied probability and our estimated true probability
• + Current price (11.0) yields a high theoretical ROI if our probability estimate is correct

Cons

• - Opponent-specific data for Jennifer is not provided, increasing model uncertainty
• - Extreme market price could reflect information not in the provided research (e.g., injury, withdrawal risk)

Details

Market prices imply an almost-certain Ana Candiotto win (home 1.01 -> implied 99.0%), which is inconsistent with the available performance data. Ana's career record (10-21, ~32% win rate) and recent losses indicate she is not a near-lock favorite; we therefore assign a much higher true chance to the away player winning than the market's implied 9.09%. Using a conservative estimate that the away player has a 65% true win probability versus Ana (reflecting Ana's sub-.500 career form and poor recent results), the away line at 11.0 offers substantial positive expected value. The quoted 11.0 converts to an implied probability of 9.09%, far below our 65% estimate, creating a large value opportunity despite uncertainty about the opponent.

Key factors

• • Ana Candiotto career win rate is 10-21 (~32%), which does not justify a 99% market probability
• • Recent match results show multiple recent losses and poor form
• • Market pricing (home 1.01 / away 11.0) implies an extreme mismatch that is unlikely given the provided performance data
• • Lack of opponent-specific data increases uncertainty and risk despite the large pricing discrepancy