Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies home win chance ~24.7%; we estimate ~30%
• • Positive EV of ~0.215 per unit at current odds 4.05

Pros

• + Research shows symmetric profiles, reducing confidence in the heavy favorite
• + Current odds (4.05) exceed our fair threshold (3.333), creating value

Cons

• - Limited and duplicated data in the research set increases uncertainty
• - No H2H, ranking, or additional context to strongly validate the 30% estimate

Details

The market strongly favors the away player at 1.208 (implied home probability 0.247), but the provided research shows near-identical career profiles, surfaces played and recent results for both players with no clear form, injury or H2H advantage for the away player. Given the symmetrical data and absence of corroborating evidence for such a large favorite, we believe the away price is overstated and the home player has significantly better chances than the market implies. We estimate the home (Ana Candiotto) win probability at 30% (0.30). At current home odds 4.05 this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.30 * 4.05 - 1 = 0.215). We therefore recommend backing the home underdog because the decimal price exceeds our minimum fair odds threshold (3.333).

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and surfaces played in the provided research
• • No injuries, H2H or form edge identified for the away player to justify heavy favoritism
• • Current market price for the home player (4.05) implies a lower probability than our estimated true chance