Highlights

• • Ana's career and recent form point to a ~32% win chance.
• • Current market odds (1.98) imply ~50% — a clear overestimate vs our model.

Pros

• + We use objective career record and recent results to form probability.
• + Conservative stance avoids betting when clear negative EV exists.

Cons

• - Opponent (Sarah Rakotomanga) information is missing from provided research, so our estimate may be incomplete.
• - Surface/venue specifics for the match are not provided, which could materially affect true probability.

Details

We estimate Ana Sofia Sanchez's true chance to win at ~32.3% based primarily on her 10-21 career record (31 matches) and recent losing form. The market currently prices Ana at 1.98 (implied probability ~50.5%), which is a large premium versus our estimate and produces a negative expected return. We lack any independent performance data for Sarah Rakotomanga in the provided research, and surface/venue specifics for this match are not supplied, which increases uncertainty. Given our probability estimate, the current market odds do not offer value for Ana; to recommend a side we would need either materially better odds or additional evidence that Ana is significantly underpriced.

Key factors

• • Ana Sofia Sanchez career win rate 10-21 (≈32.3%)
• • Recent form shows multiple recent losses, indicating low momentum
• • Market prices Ana at 1.98 (implied ≈50.5%), well above our estimate
• • No usable data provided for Sarah Rakotomanga, increasing matchup uncertainty